Wednesday, December 24, 2025
Mental Effort
Sunday, December 21, 2025
Cold and Snow
Wednesday, December 17, 2025
Optimism and Pessimism
This excellent post on how trams and tramways can be built well or badly made me think more broadly about the significance of both optimism and pessimism for how we design, build, and think about our urban designs, especially in places like the Quad Cities. I want to propose that there is an odd mix of these two that manages to reduce our willingness to try transit, bike lanes, and other effective tools for reducing congestion, traffic, road deaths, and travel times--and that make slogans like the fifteen-minute city (as valuable as I think that concept would be in practice) counterproductive for some audiences.
1. Overly Optimistic Projections
Let's start with the point raised in the article: overly optimistic projections of tram speeds and thus travel time reductions. These occur not in the final stages, but in the planning and support-generating stages: no one in the final stages is denying that the Finch LRT in Toronto, for instance, is too darn slow. But as the first article I linked to points out, that wasn't true in the initial projections: it was supposed to reach speeds fifty-percent higher than it does on average!
And that's where the optimism becomes destructive: when you overpromise and underdeliver. Yes, those projections may have gotten the Finch LRT built, but they now create conditions under which the average Torontonian is likely to be highly skeptical of claims for future transit projects (unless the mayor actually accomplishes the feat of speeding it up significantly, quickly).
This is similar to some of the claims that come with vaporware transit: highly aggressive up-front assumptions about efficacy and speed, absolutely no follow-through. And as a result, there is either no transit or disappointing transit on the streets, which produces a potential for a cynical death spiral in transit.
Nor is this limited to transit: a bike lane that's promised as protected and signalized but doesn't deliver will poison-pill future bike lane building too, and the same with the shared street that isn't really shared, the bike share that doesn't work well, etc.
Don't tell me this is a bike lane and expect me to support building more bike lanes.
We could also add here overly optimistic estimates of cost and delivery timings, which then get bogged down in massive, expensive delays: both expensive in themselves and because they allow inflation to act on your costs, and delay your revenues.
2. Overly Pessimistic Projections
Of course, the flip side of this is when projections are kept low and that results in transit being delayed or never built because of an unwillingness to see a potential upside.
I would suggest this is highly often the case in the US, but because we don't build at all we never get to see that the projections were in fact pessimistic. But in the UK, they have recent evidence with the Northumberland Line and the Borders Railway that busted past expected ridership quite quickly.
Imagine if those had been built earlier! The demand was clearly there, but understated.
These, I suggest, are cyclically behind the overly optimistic estimates above: a project comes in overly optimistic, then people reject it because it's genuinely not as good as anticipated, then future projects get lower projections. Rinse, wash, repeat.
Sort of like how people react to snowfall estimates, honestly: too many missed projections and everyone assumes it won't actually snow when the meteorologists say so.
3. Agency and Audience
But note a difference between what I'm claiming above about optimism and pessimism. Pessimism is about how the general public will respond; optimism is about things actually under the agency's and/or government's control (to some degree).
Basically, I suggest that these problems with pessimism and optimism are avoidable with proper practices.
Am I an expert who can specifically identify those practices? No.
But there are people who are. And their suggestions tend to be similar to what seems logical to me:
A. Standardize, as much as possible, designs: stations, roadways, intersections, vehicles, etc. Avoid extensive costs or delays caused by starting from scratch, and make your estimates of cost, timeline, and effects more consistent by reducing variables.
B. Establish standards for service and keep to them: a tweak to speed here, a concession to auto traffic there, and suddenly you're down to walking speed. That doesn't mean be inflexible, but it does mean standing up for the promised standard of service.
C. Build the right thing in the right place. This is the point of the initial article: don't build a tram when you want a metro, or an at-grade tram when you want a grade-separated one, or a bus when you want a tram (or vice-versa in each case). That will let you actually hit the targets you intended, or exceed pessimistic standards, by fitting the service to the use case.
But the key here is this: pessimism and optimism are a function of how we plan and what we build and how we advertise it. They're not inherent; trains don't need to be slow, costs don't need to overrun, and ridership estimates won't always be low (or high!). They're about what we do (our agency) and who we talk to about what (our audience).
We can and should build better--and I hope that isn't unearned optimism itself.
Sunday, December 14, 2025
Shared Streets (Autoluw) and Space
Wednesday, December 10, 2025
Bare Ruin'd Choirs (or Missing the Trolleybus)
This article about Seattle's trolleybuses made me feel some feelings, since I grew up in Seattle taking trolleybuses fairly frequently.
Ah, to sit upon the throne of the seat in the middle of a Seattle articulated trolleybus.
There were, as the article mentions, some severe political headwinds against these buses in the earlier part of this century, which led to the issue obliquely referenced by this title: that the trolleybus is seen as a declining technology when it ought to be in its prime.
Why? Because the trolleybus is, in my humble opinion, the best option available for a city that wants to improve its transit outcomes on the cheap, without investing in full-scale rail. That's because trolleybuses provide three things I think of as ideal in transit, all without requiring nearly as much investment in either infrastructure or vehicle costs as trains: visible infrastructure, high volume (or the potential for it), and pleasurable trips (or the potential for them as well).
1. Visible Infrastructure
I love trains because you can see where they're going and know that you're on a transit corridor without having to actually see the bus. It creates an awareness that there is service, and an expectation that you can use the service, which I think is a critical element often missed by bus-only service.
But with a trolleybus you can do that without paying train prices. Yes, you need to install the overhead lines for the electric system, but that's a lot less expensive and disruptive than train tracks, an elevated rail corridor, or god forbid tunneling or cut-and-cover.
And yet the lines above still show the transit exists, and guide you to knowing that you're in a transit corridor.
Sort of like the top of this tram picture, without the bottom part. They both trace the route, but only one of them alters the street--and it's much cheaper not to alter the street.
2. High Volume Potential
There's a reason I referenced the articulated trolleybus above: artics (or double-artics!) are big. They're higher-capacity (generally) than even the doubledeckers that London is known for.
Sorry buddy, you know I love you, but you're no artic.
They're not as high-capacity as a tram, but a lot of that is that places that run trolleybuses tend to just not run them as high-frequency as a tram would, and trams are often made up of more vehicles linked together (as in that Paris tram above, with its six sections). An articulated trolleybus is roughly two-thirds higher capacity than a regular bus, and there's no reason they can't be run highly frequently (especially if run as bus lanes or fully separated BRT) even if Seattle historically didn't really do that.
So while the volume is nowhere near a metro, these aren't really competing with a metro or even true light rail. They're competing with low-volume tramways or regular buses, and they're cheaper than the former and higher-volume than the latter.
Don't worry, Link Light Rail, this isn't coming for you. Rather, the trolleybus is ideal for a high-volume route that isn't ready for (or doesn't have the political will for or the money for) a tram, light rail, metro, etc. It's a great way to boost capacity without costing an arm and a leg.
3. Pleasurable Trips
By this I mean a callback to my first thought about trolleybuses: I like riding a trolleybus. The artics can be distinctive, attractive, and comfortable to ride on.
Basically like the HOP in Milwaukee, except much easier to expand.
The regular bus is a workhorse that we should not disrespect.
But it also has a justified reputation as kinda basic, not particularly comfortable, and, well, generic: most US cities run pretty similar buses.
And even buses like the above Chicago artic that isn't a trolleybus don't have some of the trolleybus's advantages: like a consistent route with relatively little variation that means that you can actually make the ride smoother and easier.
Trolleybuses have the potential to be well-branded, well-organized, and consistent in a way that can make them a distinctive service with a service and a reputation that both go beyond the traditional bus.
I like riding them; you might too. And that makes them a real potential tool for cities looking to expand their portfolio of transit beyond the bus/rail duality in so many US cities.
I wish Seattle had expanded them, rather than cutting them back, and I'm glad they seem to have turned back towards them in recent planning.
What do you think? Does your city have trolleybuses? Do you wish it did?
Sunday, December 7, 2025
Competing Modes
In response to this article about how Brussels' pedestrianized zone is now needing to (or at least choosing to) restrict bikes, because of pedestrian-bicyclist conflict, I wanted to think a bit more about how different modes do and do not compete for space.
Because I totally get where Brussels is coming from! But it takes a very specific mix of traffic to make that problematic, whereas, well, there are other modes that don't play quite as nice together.
1. Trams play better with people than cars
There is, of course, nothing wrong with a tram sharing space with a car.
But it does create some conflict, hence the above Toronto streetcars are notoriously slow.
Trams play better on their own, of course (as, to be fair, do most transit modes, including cars):
Or (as above in Amsterdam) shared with buses only.
But (as Berlin knows) trams and pedestrians can share pretty well, because the tracks are nice and visible, the trams are also nice and visible, and when there isn't a tram you can just...walk (as long as you don't use third-rail power I suppose).
2. Bikes work best with pedestrians
Brussels aside, bikes tend to work OK with pedestrians, both working at fairly human speeds, though there's definitely a reason that the Netherlands has bike highways that are not walkways.
Note that for this picture I am not standing on the red.
What they really don't play nice with is the other forms of transit. Don't make me ride over train tracks, please! And please bar the cars from driving in the bike spaces!
Thanks for this protected bike lane, Toronto!
All that paint is only so useful, Chicago. It doesn't actually separate the modes!
The tendency towards shared paths here in the Quad Cities (above) does tend to make it easier to get bike-type infrastructure built, but also means that you do produce some additional conflicts between peds and bikes by forcing them onto one path.
3. Trains (and pedestrians) are best alone
Look, I like trains. I love trains. Trains are my jam.
But they really work best when they don't share right of way.
Don't try to drive a car or ride a bike by these mainline trains in the UK!
Let alone getting something else down into the Tube!
But at the same time, let these people in Camden Town just walk without having to deal with cars and bikes and trains.
Basically, the two extremes (big fast thing that needs tracks and individual people who aren't in a vehicle at all) both do their best when you let them actually do their thing.
The TGV can't OuiGo if there's someone in the way!
Wednesday, December 3, 2025
Revisiting Milwaukee
The Perils of Light Snow
This week in Iowa we've been getting a lot of light snow, and it made me have some thoughts about which kinds of transportation are bes...
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This matchup features my daughter's favorite city against what Hamilton calls the greatest city in the world: Milwaukee vs New York. I w...
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There's a concept in software development called "vaporware": a product that's talked up and used to generate interest or ...
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The last couple weeks we had some bad weather here in the Quad Cities, a real mix: some freezing temps, some slight snow, some rain, some fo...








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